Sun Liping on the End of the Pandemic

Sun Liping, “Let’s Think it Through:  A Possible Picture of the Post-Pandemic era and the Problems We May Face”[1]
 
Introduction and Translation by David Ownby
 
Introduction
 
Sun Liping (b. 1955) is a prominent professor of sociology at Tsinghua University, as well as an active public intellectual in China, known for his liberal perspectives on social and political issues (see this brief interview for an overview of his basic worldview).  As part of his engagement as a public intellectual, Sun posts frequently to his WeChat feed, generally addressing the issues of the day from a longer-term, sociological perspective in a pithy, understandable way. His voice is often that of a “truth-teller,” as his post on “You Want Them to Have Three Children?  First, Give Them a Reason” suggests. 

Reading through the Chinese media last week, I noticed that Sun had posted twice about the pandemic, and that both of the posts had been taken down by Chinese authorities (presumably the authorities could simply take down the posts, and not tell readers that the posts have been taken down; I suppose this is a way of warning others what not to say.  I should mention that Sun is still posting, but not about this).  One was the piece translated here, which had been posted elsewhere online.  The other was a comment on Christopher J.L. Murray’s essay in The Lancet entitled “COVID-19 Will Continue but the End of the Pandemic is Near.”  I was unable to locate Sun’s comment on The Lancet piece, but having read this one, it is not difficult to imagine what Sun might well have said.
 
Sun Liping notes simply that it looks like the pandemic is coming to an end in much of the world, not because the virus has been eradicated, but because the current variant is more contagious and less virulent, and this plus widespread vaccination means that some populations are approaching herd immunity.  What surely got Sun’s post taken down by authorities was that he then wondered whether China might not consider the same approach once the Olympics are over.  He does not say “Omicron is surely coming, no matter what we do, and it is not clear that the tactics we have used to date will work.”  But he does wonder how China will manage as virtually the sole exception in a world that has decided to live with Covid-19 and “get back to normal.”

Xi Jinping’s nightmare scenario for the past few months has surely been that Omicron would hit China two weeks before the beginning of the Olympics, and the world media would be there to witness either China’s draconian efforts to control the virus, and/or the failure of those efforts.  The authorities are surely still holding their breath and praying to whatever gods Communist officials pray to.  But even if they manage to dodge the bullet and get through the Olympics without a major disaster, that will be merely a temporary respite, because Sun Liping asks a good question of a country that has gotten rich through globalization:  how do we practice zero-tolerance in a world that has not and will not eradicate the virus?
 
Translation
 
Let me be clear from the outset that I am not an expert when it comes to the technical aspects of the virus or the pandemic. So everyone should take the following discussion for what it is. Be that as it may, I am not just making things up, but am basing my remarks on two things:  basic facts and basic logic.
 
Since the spring of last year (2021), I have written several times about the idea that the post-pandemic era is arriving. In some texts, I even pointed to last year's European Cup as a symbolic sign of this arrival.
 
Given the rebound of the pandemic in many parts of the world, and especially the super-contagiousness of the Omicron mutation, some people have said to me, "It looks like you really stepped in it.  What do you have to say now?” In fact, I stand by my original opinion: the world is entering the post-pandemic era.
 
Two points need to be made about the post-pandemic era.  First, the arrival of this era does not mean the eradication of the virus, but rather that we now have the means to coexist with the virus. Second, the world is not entering the post-pandemic era together, at the same moment, but is rather doing so gradually. In terms of individual countries, there is a sequence.
 
What will the post-pandemic era look like? Let's quote two stories from the news. In France, people who don’t have covid are squatting at home in quarantine, while the people who do are all out having fun. In Australia, eight people got together, seven of whom were covid-free, and one of whom had the virus.  The seven convinced the one to leave, and continued on with their dinner. 
 
The stories are certainly exaggerated and simplistic, but at the same time they graphically demonstrate the most basic features of the post-epidemic era: the new mutations are not as scary as the original; herd immunity is taking hold and is even becoming the new normal.
 
Looking at the big picture, in some countries the idea of coexisting with the virus has come to dominate the discussion in the last little while. Of course the basic preconditions enabling them to think this way are weak virulence and herd immunity. Perhaps God took pity on us, but in any event these conditions have emerged in some countries.
 
In previous posts, I have said repeatedly that one of the major issues facing the post-pandemic world is the question of how countries and populations with different herd immunities will deal with one other. This is an inevitable result of different levels of immunization. Part of the reason for this are the two ideas, or two models—coexistence on the one hand and zero-tolerance on the other—that are behind the different levels of immunization.
 
The idea of zero-tolerance has its own logic. When the virus is virulent and there is no herd immunity, all you can do is stand firm and do everything possible to prevent the virus from spreading.   And the facts prove that in the early period of the pandemic, this was the only available method, although it came with a huge cost.
 
But now things are changing.   As the virulence of the virus declines and herd immunity begins to take hold, some countries, despite having fairly high infection rates, have liberalized their controls to a significant degree and economic and social life is beginning to return to normal.
 
We might imagine that in such a situation, we might adjust our zero-tolerance model here in China.  Especially after the Winter Olympics, such an adjustment should be conceivable as long as nothing unexpected occurs in terms of the development of the pandemic. Otherwise, there will be a huge price to pay, especially in economic terms. In an environment of international saber-rattling, we all know what this means.
 
A real issue here, however, is whether we can withstand the shock of a model adjustment. As mentioned above, the precondition for liberalization or adjustment is the weak virulence of the virus and the emergence of herd immunity. There are actually two types of herd immunity: natural immunity that develops after recovery from the infection, and artificial immunity that comes with vaccination. The former can be referred to as natural immunity, and the latter can be referred to as man-made immunity. Of course, countries moving toward herd immunity do not rely entirely on natural immunity, but a combination of the two, what they call the “three-shot + infection model.” 
 
This leads us to ask a question: might there be differences between man-made immunity and natural immunity? In other words, would there be differences in terms of the strength of immunity, the length of its effectiveness, and its ability to respond to new mutations?
 
Of course, the future evolution of the virus is a much bigger variable. Specifically, whether new virulent mutations will emerge and whether the herd immunity currently taking form will be able to cope with the mutations.
 
None of this has to do with passing judgement or saying what we should do.  I’m just thinking through the issues logically, and trying to imagine the future in terms of this logic.
 
Notes

[1]孙立平, “一点逻辑推理：后疫时代的可能画面及其我们可能会面对的问题,” originally published on Sun’s WeChat feed on January 17, 2022, subsequently taken down by authorities, and reposted here.